Israel and Iran: where is the conflict heading? – Today in Focus extra

In this episode, Michael Safi provides an update on the Israel-Iran war, now entering its second week. The conflict primarily involves aerial operations, with Israel gaining significant control over Iranian airspace, leading to increased airstrikes on Iranian military targets. The Iranian military's ability to retaliate appears to be diminishing, raising questions about how long they can sustain missile strikes against Israel. As Israel expands its bombing targets, this conflict shows signs of evolving into a regime change effort, although this is not officially stated by Israeli leadership.

Donald Trump's hesitance in deciding on U.S. involvement is analyzed, with speculation that he is awaiting further developments in the conflict. Trump's approach seems to be both strategic, looking to see the extent of Israel's impact on Iran's military, and a reflection of his public persona, enjoying the suspense of being a decision-maker in a high-stakes situation. The episode hints at several considerations, such as the potential outcomes of key Iranian leadership changes if conflict escalates.

As the situation progresses, the episode also points to the potential for diplomatic solutions involving European leaders and Iranian representatives discussing uranium enrichment—a point of contention in negotiations. Trump's longing for a legacy as a peace-maker is suggested as a motivator for his decision-making process. However, the episode concludes with the observation that, despite the conflict's toll on civilians, it may ironically strengthen the current Iranian regime as nationalist sentiments increase among its populace amidst foreign attacks.