Is this the end of the Iranian regime?

This episode explores the ongoing protests in Iran that have intensified since December due to dire economic conditions exacerbated by sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement. The protests, which initially began with economic grievances from small business owners, have evolved into widespread calls for regime change, marking a significant shift in the public's demands.

The regime's violent response, including an internet blackout, has resulted in the deaths of over 500 protesters amid student shootings and widespread chaos. The episode features a personal account from Masa Paré, who has lost family members to government violence and remains hopeful for change, asserting that this uprising is fundamentally different from previous ones as it seeks to dismantle the regime rather than merely call for reforms.

Eli Garamaya, a Middle East expert, provides insights into the historical context of these protests. He highlights the loss of the regime's support from previously loyal groups, such as merchants and lower-income households, as the social contract has failed to deliver on its promises. The Iranian government's dual approach—offering dialogue while also cracking down—has created a dangerous dynamic fueled by external threats and accusations against foreign adversaries.

Garama discusses the regime's potential responses, including a hardline security approach and possibly seeking a new social contract to alleviate citizens' concerns. The conversation also touches on the shifting geopolitical landscape, the role of external actors like the U.S. and Israel, and the implications of a possible military confrontation in the region. The episode concludes by emphasizing the unpredictable future of Iran's political climate and the dire need for change, as the current system is deemed unsustainable.